Changes in Australia’s Perception of External Threats—— Analysis Based on Lowy Institute Poll Reports from 2005-2023

Abstract

Based on the annual poll reports of the Australian Lowy Institute for International Policy from 2005 to 2023, and starting from the theoretical perspective of threat perception, this paper systematically sorts out and analyzes the evolution trajectory, typological characteristics, and driving factors of Australia’s external threat perception using a combined qualitative and quantitative research approach. The study finds that over the past nearly two decades, Australia’s overall sense of security has shown a significant downward trend, and its threat perception map has undergone a profound shift from a relatively optimistic “risk society” mentality to a highly vigilant “strategic anxiety society” mentality. In the traditional security domain, the focus of threat perception has shifted from international terrorism to major power geopolitical competition, with concern over land and maritime conflict risks (such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Taiwan Strait issue) rising sharply; in the non-traditional security domain, sensitivity and concern over threats such as climate change and cyberattacks have continued to intensify, and their scope and impact are perceived as continuously expanding. The perception of the threat from China has undergone a fundamental reversal from economic partner to primary security threat. The research provides a systematic attribution of this cognitive evolution from multiple dimensions including historical psychology, economic dependence, alliance politics, global order, and technological change. This paper concludes that Australia has formed a multi-layered threat perception consensus, which will continue to shape its future national security strategy and foreign policy direction.